Can a Groundhog and His Shadow Predict the Strength of the Housing Market?

Posted on Feb 2 2017 - 10:56am by Housecall
#0

Can a groundhog and his shadow predict the strength of the housing market? Here is what happened the past 20 years in real estate when Punxsutawney Phil climbed out of his hole; does seeing his shadow extend to real estate? You decide.

Shadow of a Doubt: Groundhog Day and Real Estate

Year

Shadow

Home Sales

Increase

Home Price

Increase

Year

Shadow

Home Sales

Home Prices

1996

Yes

8.3

4.6

2007

No

-22.3

-1.3

1997

No

5.0

5.2

2008

Yes

-18.3

-9.5

1998

Yes

13.5

5.3

2009

Yes

5.6

-12.9

1999

No

4.3

3.9

2010

Yes

-3.5

0.2

2000

Yes

-0.1

4.1

2011

No

1.7

-3.9

2001

Yes

3.1

6.6

2012

Yes

9.4

6.4

2002

Yes

5.6

7.7

2013

No

9.2

11.5

2003

Yes

9.6

8.4

2014

Yes

-2.9

5.7

2004

Yes

9.7

9.3

2015

Yes

6.3

6.8

2005

Yes

4.5

12.4

2016

No

3.8

5.2

2006

Yes

-8.5

1.0

Sees no shadow

0.3

3.4

Sees a shadow

2.8

3.7

NAR_Groundhog_Day_2017_Infographic

*Averages based on YoY median sales price and median existing home sales increases from 1996-2016.

Source: NAR

 

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